Demographics will drive our destiny and that’s why it’s important for property investors and business owners to understand the changing demographic trends, including population forecasts.

I recently attended a great webinar by demographers Informed Decisions – id.com.au 

Here are some of the takeaways from that session, but you can register to watch the full webinar here.

Australia to add 8.6 million people 2021-2046

Australia’s population has doubled since the early 70s.

At the last Census in 2021, Australia’s population was just over 25.5 million people.

Demographers id.com.au 2024 forecasts show Australia reaching 34.3 million by 2046 – an additional 8.6 million people.

Share of growth by state

Two-thirds of Australia’s total forecast growth will be in Australia’s four largest states, with the lion’s share occurring within the Greater capital cities of Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.

Overseas Migration

The demographers at id.com forecast that Net Overseas Migration (NOM) will stay higher for longer than official forecasts predict.

As a result, they forecast Australia’s population will add 750,000 more people in the next five years than the Centre for Population.

More births, despite a declining birth rate

A reduction in the birth rate means there are fewer births in their forecasts than previously, but id.com.au still forecast Australia’s population growth will continue to grow from Natural increase (the net of births and deaths) over the next 25 years.

Life expectancy continues to defy expectations

For the last 50 years, Australian life expectancy has continued to increase at the rate of an additional year every five years, with lower mortality rates in mid-life leading to more people in their 70’s and 80’s.

A small shift in average household size would have a big impact.

 

​Right now, just under 27 million people live in Australia, in about 11 million households.

The average number of people living in each household has trended lower, from around 2.8 in the mid-1980s to around 2.5 now.

​This may sound like a small change. But, if for some reason average household size rose back to 2.8, we would need 1.2 million fewer dwellings to house our current population – no small difference.

Source of all charts and notes: Demographers Informed Decisions – id.com.au 

About Michael Yardney
Michael is the founder of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He’s once again been voted Australia’s leading property investment adviser and one of Australia’s 50 most influential Thought Leaders. His opinions are regularly featured in the media.